Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.312088 2.450372 2.600964 2.778822 2.985468 3.221076 3.514789
2025-07-27 2.174460 2.345796 2.540201 2.781184 3.078184 3.441786 3.937924
2025-08-03 2.082546 2.272818 2.494686 2.779098 3.145035 3.618487 4.315671
2025-08-10 1.973949 2.167862 2.397390 2.697234 3.092813 3.622102 4.440860
2025-08-17 1.906084 2.105460 2.344761 2.663011 3.093183 3.688428 4.658101
2025-08-24 1.853072 2.056940 2.304554 2.639004 3.100904 3.759995 4.888335
2025-08-31 1.813534 2.022202 2.278469 2.629727 3.125035 3.853748 5.167702
2025-09-07 1.788831 2.004088 2.271530 2.643876 3.180904 3.998505 5.565849
2025-09-14 1.718943 1.926239 2.183938 2.543000 3.061460 3.852182 5.372933
2025-09-21 1.699162 1.911106 2.176997 2.552118 3.103823 3.969809 5.728705
2025-09-28 1.656603 1.865411 2.128128 2.500254 3.050819 3.923250 5.728529
2025-10-05 1.659830 1.878273 2.156511 2.557418 3.166136 4.172380 6.444347
2025-10-12 1.665947 1.896668 2.195067 2.634434 3.324439 4.532791 7.645845
2025-10-19 1.646705 1.880821 2.186099 2.640924 3.368784 4.686983 8.384986
2025-10-26 1.627402 1.864050 2.174864 2.642834 3.404632 4.828329 9.182734
2025-11-02 1.584595 1.814868 2.117247 2.572376 3.312898 4.695534 8.912992
2025-11-09 1.558094 1.786840 2.088213 2.544047 3.291683 4.708763 9.225423
2025-11-16 1.535888 1.763985 2.065643 2.524466 3.284005 4.749283 9.678750
2025-11-23 1.519113 1.747963 2.052065 2.517889 3.298201 4.838568 10.423423
2025-11-30 1.510098 1.742059 2.052343 2.532364 3.350069 5.019182 11.840011
2025-12-07 1.467515 1.690004 1.986292 2.441605 3.208449 4.738480 10.493163
2025-12-14 1.458555 1.683368 1.984446 2.451054 3.248329 4.885821 11.737818
2025-12-21 1.432044 1.652458 1.947499 2.404416 3.184146 4.781498 11.399585